Jointly hosted by the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) and the Institute for China & World Studies, Tongji University, and organized by CIGS, the 2nd China-Japan Economic Strategy Dialogue, a seminar on “Coordinated Outlook on China and Japan in the New Era” was held online on November 25, 2020. Six experts from China and Japan were invited to discuss topics on China-Japan relations and economic cooperation. This online seminar was moderated by Mr. SEGUCHI Kiyoyuki, Research Director of CIGS.

Prof. Men Honghua, Dean of the Political Science & International Relations and President of the Institute for China & World Studies at Tongji University, first delivered a welcome speech and thanked all experts for their attendance, emphasizing candid exchanges as the purpose of this seminar. He pointed out that this seminar is held in a new international environment where COVID-19 broke out globally, Japan has its new prime minister, the US election results are getting clearer, and exchanges between China and Japan are occurring, which is more helpful for the experts to share new, important points of view.

Focusing on the economic issues in China and Japan, Prof. Wang Jingbin, Dean of the School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology (TUT), and Ms. OKAZAKI Kumiko, Research Director of CIGS, discussed how to achieve high-quality development in the context of falling birth rate and aging, and forecast the banking system reforms in China and Japan. Given the fact that Japan has maintained high-quality development after encountering the problems of falling population and aging, Prof. Wang analyzed in his presentation “High-Quality Development for China and Japan in the Context of Falling Birth Rate and Aging” in what directions China can draw on Japanese experiences and in what areas China can cooperate more with Japan. Prof. Wang analyzed how to achieve economic growth amid reduction in work force, believing that the source of growth is to create new products with a great demand. He further proposed the term “longevity bonus”, meaning that the healthy aging population can create positive economic effects with their wisdom, social experience, social capital and other social capital.

In her speech “Outlook on the Banking System Reforms in China and Japan”, Ms. OKAZAKI introduced the large-scale background of the local banks in Japan and the direction of future reform, and believed that Japan can learn from China with regard to maintaining market stability. She pointed out the necessity and importance of mutual learning, and had faith in the prospects for cooperation between China and Japan on solving the above problems.

In her presentation “US-Soviet Confrontation vs. China-US Tensions: Similarities and Differences”, Ms. Wu Junhua, Research Director of the Japan Research Institute, compared the US-Soviet confrontation in the second half of the 20th century with the current China-US tensions. Admittedly, there are some similarities between China-US tensions and US-Soviet confrontation, but there are close ties between China and the US in the context of globalization, including a lot of “peaceful” elements. As such, she proposed the concept of “cold peace”. Regarding the future development of China-US relations, Ms. Wu believed that under a Biden administration, the “free fall” situation in China-US relations will cease in the near term, but in the long run, the situation may not be optimistic.

Dean Prof. Men interpreted Japan’s trends and analyzed the opportunities and challenges brought about by China-Japan relations in his speech entitled “How to Turn China-Japan Relations from Competition to Coordination”. He reviewed the trends from 2012 to 2020, affirmed the principles and consensus agreed by both parties, and also emphasized the importance of facing up to the problems in the bilateral relations, in which, he believed, the leaders of both countries should play an important role. He analyzed the China-Japan relations from politics, economics, security, people-to-people exchanges, international affairs and other areas, pointing out that there is a broad prospect for cooperation between China and Japan.

Then Prof. Zhou Tianyong, Deputy Director of the International Strategic Research Institute at the Party School of the Central Committee of the CPC, and Mr. SEGUCHI Kiyoyuki, Research Director of CIGS, discussed China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. Prof. Zhou analyzed China’s development and looked into the future 14th Five-Year Plan in his speech entitled “Direction of and Outlook on China-Japan Economic Cooperation during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period”. He believed that efficiency improvement and factor liberalization through reform would help achieve the goal of doubling China’s GDP by 2035. He also proposed prospects for China-Japan economic cooperation, including pushing forward the China-Japan-ROK FTA construction, advancing China-Japan-ROK cooperation in the northeast of China, and promoting economic and industrial cooperation between China and Japan.

In his speech entitled “Outlook on the 14th Five-Year Plan under a New Japan- China-US Situation”, Mr. SEGUCHI analyzed the narrowing economic gap between China and the US based on data compiled by the International Monetary Fund, and believed that the global economic society will enter an era of multi-polar leadership as China’s share of the world continues to increase. He estimated China's economic growth rate in the next 20 years, believing that acceleration of aging, deceleration of urbanization, reduction in large-scale infrastructure construction, and worse performance of state-owned enterprises will be the main factors affecting China’s economic growth. When it comes to China-Japan relations, the long-term stability of China’s economy is crucial to Japan’s economic stability, and better bilateral relations and China’s positive attitude to investment promotion is conducive to economic cooperation between the two countries. Since the world find it difficult to stay on the same page, the global community is facing a new situation where it is impossible to address key issues through law-based governance. So there is a need to build a spontaneous order on the moral basis through law-based governance to highlight the role of oriental values in the new era, Mr. SEGUCHI said.

 The experts revisited the China-Japan economic relations, actively and frankly exchanged opinions, raised a series of questions with both realistic and academic value, and gave thought-provoking answers based on their own research findings, fully reflecting the collision and exchange of ideas between China and Japan. Finally, they respectively summarized the takeaways of the seminar and looked forward to long-term cooperation and exchanges.